Finally Peace!
No, not in the Middle East, but between France and the US over the proposed cease-fire resolution. The UN still has to approve, and then it must be accepted by all parties involved. Don't get out your Southern Lebanon vacation literature yet, though. Actually, with the stabbing of a tourist today in Jerusalem, I wouldn't plan on any travel to the Middle East right now.
It will be interesting to see if Hezbollah is involved at all in the peace talks. All along this has been touted as Lebanon v. Israel, but it's not.
The new resolution calls for Israel to pull out of Lebanon to be replaced by a UN multi-national force, much like UNIFIL (United Nations in Lebanon) but hopefully stronger since UNIFIL is a useless money drain. While nothing in the resolution calls for disarming Hezbollah, it does mention cutting off supply lines so that Iran and Syria specifically cannot get any additional arms in for Hezbollah.
Those are the highlights. The language of the resolution will be what will be important. Israel will be looking for words allowing them to attack in defense, for example, and Lebanon will probably be wanting definitions of exactly when Israel gets out and how far back to the south they back up.
I am skeptical any of this will work. It will either fall apart tomorrow at the UN, or it will not be ratified by Lebanon and/or Israel, or, if it is ratified, Hezbollah is not going to bow out gracefully, so they will not honor the cease-fire.
Whatever happens, both Israel and Hezbollah will continue to bomb the crap out of each other in case a cease-fire is ratified. This weekend will probably see high casualty numbers. Israel, in particular, is going to pull out all the stops. Since Hezbollah will not agree to a cease-fire, the Israelis need to cripple them as much as possible.
It will be interesting to see if Hezbollah is involved at all in the peace talks. All along this has been touted as Lebanon v. Israel, but it's not.
The new resolution calls for Israel to pull out of Lebanon to be replaced by a UN multi-national force, much like UNIFIL (United Nations in Lebanon) but hopefully stronger since UNIFIL is a useless money drain. While nothing in the resolution calls for disarming Hezbollah, it does mention cutting off supply lines so that Iran and Syria specifically cannot get any additional arms in for Hezbollah.
Those are the highlights. The language of the resolution will be what will be important. Israel will be looking for words allowing them to attack in defense, for example, and Lebanon will probably be wanting definitions of exactly when Israel gets out and how far back to the south they back up.
I am skeptical any of this will work. It will either fall apart tomorrow at the UN, or it will not be ratified by Lebanon and/or Israel, or, if it is ratified, Hezbollah is not going to bow out gracefully, so they will not honor the cease-fire.
Whatever happens, both Israel and Hezbollah will continue to bomb the crap out of each other in case a cease-fire is ratified. This weekend will probably see high casualty numbers. Israel, in particular, is going to pull out all the stops. Since Hezbollah will not agree to a cease-fire, the Israelis need to cripple them as much as possible.
posted by The Curious Bonefish at 10.8.06
1 Comments:
I am extremely skeptical of this as well. I have thought the UN was corrupt and worthless before but now it is getting ridiculous. They have a resolution in place that says Hezbollah was supposed to disarm and it was never enforced. I don't trust this UN multi-national force. The UN has sat by for years and watched Hezbollah arm themselves and entrench themselves in Lebanon.
I personally think we should just give Israel the green light to wipe out Hezbollah. If not they will just keep coming back determined to destroy Israel and the West.
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